🔗 Share this article

Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It often serves as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence wins the prize. However, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or simply the biggest shock.

However the current competition is profoundly unique. The group of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference champions falling away and longtime also-rans ascending collectively. During an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's facing several other elite coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his special ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to spin big plays out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each bet – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a typical campaign!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a given following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still